It is clear – Thursday afternoon’s NCAA Tournament game on ESPN2 at noon MT between #1 Denver and #4 UMass-Amherst will be a battle of offense (Denver) vs. defense (UMass-Amherst). A recent uptick in the DU defense performance and the possible return of Massimo Rizzo gives DU fans plenty of reason for optimism.

The Minutemen are holding opponents to 2.63 goals per game while the high-flying Denver offense is racking up 4.85 goals per game, good for #1 nationally. Michael Hrabal has been solid between the pipes (.916/31st NCAA) for the Minutemen while Matt Davis has been more porous at .905 (49th), though his numbers have improved dramatically over the last month and a half. Denver is no slouch on defense, especially lately, giving up 2.93 goals per game. Davis has a 1.75 GAA over the last four games while UMass-Amherst has given up 3.75 in their last four games – including an 8-1 drubbing at the hands of Boston College in the Hockey East semis.

While most of the Hockey East awards went to the two Boston collegiate powers, the Minutemen were recognized for their defense. Minutemen junior defenseman Ryan Ufko, freshman goaltender Michael Hrabal, and junior defenseman Scott Morrow earned spots on the Hockey East All-Star Team. So, expect the UMass-Amherst defense to challenge DU’s front line. If the Minutemen defense has its way, scoring may be at a premium.

Forward Jack Musa leads the Minutemen front line with 12 goals and 17 assists. Defenseman Scott Morrow has scored 6 goals while shelling out a team-leading 24 assists. In contrast, DU has scored 194 goals, led by forward Jack Devine with 27 goals and 28 assists, and freshman defenseman Zeev Buium with 11 goals and 37 assists. Expect forward Massimo Rizzo with 10 goals and 34 assists to return to the ice from injury to give DU extra scoring juice.

You want scoring contrast? How about this – Denver has nine players on its roster who have recorded at least 30 points, a mark many consider to be a ‘great year’ in college hockey. UMass-Amherst? Just one – Morrow.

The Minutemen will look to clog up the blue line and slow down Denver’s hard-charging forwards. But for Denver, a team that loves to possess and drive offense in transition, a change in style might be necessary to take it to the Minutemen, at least early on. Denver is one of the fastest skating teams in the country and if they can get the puck in behind the defense early and often with a dump-and-chase zone entry, they should win most races to the puck and they’ll be able to go to work with their elite possession game. Remember, you don’t have to play defense or make any saves if the other team never touches the puck!

The other x-factor for Denver is Massimo Rizzo’s potential return. DU’s top-line center has been out since February 3rd when Denver lost 7-2 to Western Michigan. If Rizzo is ready to play, does head coach David Carle ease him into the lineup or start him on the first line and rack up the minutes? Rust will surely be a factor for Rizzo but his creativity and lethal release will be extremely helpful if Denver wants to take their roadshow from Springfield to St. Paul.

The Minutemen have only scored 106 goals in 36 games. If DU can score early, build a multi-goal lead, and quiet the matinee home crowd, the Pioneers can shift the pressure to the UMass-Amherst forwards and force them to open up the game – a style their team is uncomfortable with. In turn, Denver’s defense must keep the Minutemen offense wide and in the corners to limit grade-A shots, something they did phenomenally in the Frozen Faceoff Championship game against Omaha. Finally, Matt Davis doesn’t have to make every save but he must make the big ones and stay focused for the full 60 minutes to earn the win and a game on Saturday vs. the winner of tomorrow night’s Cornell-Maine matchup.

Denver has the edge here. There’s no question about it. They’re head and shoulders better than a UMass-Amherst team that needed the Pioneers’ help to even make the NCAA Tournament. But the question is will Denver play like the juggernaut they are and skate the Minutemen out of the building? Or will they play down to their opponent and let the regional hosts stick around to make for a stressful third period and give the country its first ‘upset alert’ of the Tournament?

The Pioneers have played strong, mature hockey over the past couple of months with only a hiccup or two along the way and it’s been a welcome sight for the second-youngest team in the country. Denver should win this game. But this time of year, even the smallest mistake can send the best teams in the country home.

Denver has its sights set on four more wins and their record 10th national title. Step one is just to take care of business tomorrow afternoon.

The NCAA Tournament gets underway tomorrow afternoon with Denver – UMass-Amherst. The game is scheduled to start at noon Mountain Time and will be televised on ESPN2.