Now is an ideal time to evaluate and project how Denver Men’s Basketball will perform in their inaugural season in the West Coast Conference (WCC) next season. Seattle University provides an ideal model of what lies ahead for Denver hoops.

The Comparison

Seattle University is in its first season as a member of the West Coast Conference (WCC) since escaping the Western Athletic Conference (WAC). The Redhawks sit at 14-8 overall and 3-6 in the WCC. In their final season in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), they finished 14-18 (8-8 WAC). However, Seattle U had 20+ wins the prior three seasons. Currently, Denver sits at 9-13, (2-5 Summit), with nine conference matchups remaining before their final appearance in the conference tournament. Earlier this season, the Redhawks downed Denver 84-73 in non-conference play.

NET rankings are an NCAA Evaluation Tool used by college basketball to evaluate and compare teams for March Madness. Seattle U’s NET ranking at the end of the 2023-24 season (last full season in the WAC) was 109th out of 365. The most recent NET ranking for Denver this season places the Pioneers at 251. DU is trailing Seattle U considerably for the season before moving to the WCC. Another highly ranked rating service, KenPom, currently has Seattle U at #123 and DU at #259 this season. Assuming all things remain static, tight losses in the Summit League this season will translate to double-digit losses next season.

DU Athletics and the men’s basketball program clearly know this, but can renewed efforts translate to a competitive DU team in their first season in the WCC?

Strength & Weaknesses

This season, Denver’s current scoring defense is #351 (again, out of 365), and its offense checks in at #48. The season before joining the WCC, Seattle U was #224 in scoring offense and #45 on defense, almost the exact opposite strengths and weaknesses of Denver men’s basketball. These rankings state the obvious – Denver’s defense must improve dramatically. That means, among many other things, placing a big recruiting emphasis on height and athleticism.

Seattle U’s first season in the WCC shows that DU men’s basketball has a lot of work to do. Probably no one knows the disparity more than DU Athletics and the Denver coaching staff. They must fight against the old paradigm that DU has never been great at hoops, so it will never be good at hoops. Cynics will argue that now is the worst time to compete in hoops based on the current volatility in Division I athletics – especially hoops and football. Others have adopted a do-nothing approach and hope and pray that a mediocre basketball team can catch lightning in a bottle at the end of the season and miraculously win the conference tournament. Hope is not a strategy. Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment. DU teams, administrators, and fans have been down that road before.

The Road Ahead

Denver can have a successful start when it joins the West Coast Conference next season – they can put a product on the floor that can compete night in and night out against teams in the conference. The conference is filled with members that match DU’s athletic and academic profile in nearly every respect. Gonzaga, Oregon State, and Washington are exiting the conference to join the reconstituted Pac-12 Conference. In the current environment, NCAA teams can be rebuilt and restructured nearly overnight using the transfer portal, NIL, and profit-sharing tools at their disposal. Denver must address its lack of size, athleticism, defense, and roster depth.  Based on power rankings, Denver is moving from the 22nd-ranked conference this season to the 7th-ranked WCC. Even with the departure of some power programs, the addition of UC San Diego is sure to offset some of these losses. Plus, it is expected that another high-major team is likely to be added to the WCC in the future.

An early assessment of first-year head coach Tim Bergstraser shows he can identify and develop D1 players. His in-game coaching and substitutions are solid, especially with his narrow first-year recruiting window. Clearly, DU must recruit 2 to 3 athletic big men and add skill and size to the backcourt next season. Because DU is unlikely to land top-tier ‘bigs’, they have to develop them. Most Division I teams have dedicated coaching roles for big men (post players) or at least assistants with significant interior-play expertise. The official title varies, with some programs having specific “Player Development Coaches.” DU would benefit by adding another assistant coach who specializes in this role.

Yes, some of the team’s  current shortfalls could be solved by upgraded recruiting but coaching is equally important to improve in the following key areas:

• Defensive Consistency: The team must maintain high-intensity, full-game defensive pressure to reduce opponent scoring opportunities (85.3 ppg., #351/361).
• Turnover Differential: While maintaining a low turnover rate, increasing the number of turnovers forced from opponents (currently 12.7 TO/G for Denver vs. 12.9 for opponents) is crucial.
• Efficiency Metrics: Improving the 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio will be key to managing games better.
• Rebounding: Strengthening defensive rebounding, currently -1 differential, will be a critical factor in controlling game outcomes.

DU’s Recruitment Model

At this point, Denver appears to be leaning on a profit-sharing model, leveraging revenue from non-conference ‘buy games’ and not leaning heavily on NIL. Many teams in the WCC rely heavily on both profit-sharing and a more aggressive approach to NIL. Time will tell if this strategy allows DU to compete on an even footing in the WCC.

Denver can also sell the ‘value proposition’ of the University of Denver’s campus, academics, and metro area. Also, the lure of West Coast Conference competition will attract a higher caliber of athlete. However, other West Coast Conference teams have the same argument to make with their recruits as well.

Fan Experience & Growth

Denver Athletics is showing improved gameday fan support that has been sorely lacking in the past. That marketing effort needs to continue moving forward next season. Denver Athletics is close to launching an undergraduate student-driven pep band starting next season as well. The high school bands playing at Hamilton Gym this season have made a major improvement in the gameday environment, but this is clearly a stopgap measure. Let’s hope this new pep band is a reality – and yes, we’ve heard this before.

New premium seating is slated for Hamilton Gym next season as well. The administration has stated its willingness to move back to Magness Arena if the fan ticket demand increases (Seattle U has scheduled five games this season at Climate Pledge Arena, home of the NHL Seattle Kraken and the WNBA Seattle Storm). Longer term, pending financing (i.e., donors), Denver may be adding additional sky boxes in Hamilton Gym for hoops (and lacrosse) on the west side of Hamilton Gym. All these efforts should be pushed as early as possible to capture the momentum of new membership in the WCC.

Seattle U has been drawing 1,000 fans, which counts as a sellout, to its tiny Redhawks Center on-campus arena, but it drew nearly 8,000 fans to its Gonzaga game at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. The Redhawks are facing many of the same revenue challenges as DU, with its smaller facility and lagging fan support. Trailing only Seattle U, Denver has the second smallest primary arena in the conference.

Why is Seattle U a Valuable Measuring Stick?

Seattle U Athletics are very similar to DU. Outside overlapping conference sports, the Redhawks do not have hockey and lacrosse but sponsor baseball, softball, and rowing, along with men’s and women’s cross country. Their school size is nearly half of Denver’s (3,100 vs. 6,500 undergraduates), and they appear to have fewer financial advantages vs. DU (their endowment sits at $318M vs. DU’s $1.09B). Their basketball tradition is much richer than DU’s, though, with 11 tournament appearances, a 1958 NCAA Tournament championship appearance, and outstanding alums like Elgin Baylor and Jawaan Oldham. So, in many ways, the Redhawks move to the WCC in hoops is/was less of a jump than DU’s will be. It should also be noted that Seattle U sees basketball as a tier I priority, while Denver Athletics funds and fields nationally relevant sports in hockey, gymnastics, soccer, and lacrosse.

Conclusion

To match or exceed Seattle U’s first season in the WCC, DU basketball must selectively invest in hoops, balanced with other department priorities, with an eye on making hoops a sustainable asset longer-term for DU Athletics and the University of Denver. Between ticketing, sponsorships, tournament unit payouts, merchandise, and media, growing Denver hoops can only be done if it makes actual fiscal sense in today’s environment. While the University may have to incur some needed short-term investments, there must be a keen eye on future sustainability, too. Not the start-stop pattern of the past.

Obviously, DU must continue to provide more support for hoops to be competitive in a conference that emphasizes basketball. Progress, especially luring and retaining high mid-major players, tops the list. The upgrade to the WCC should help upgrade the roster, but Denver must do even more. Basketball can be at least a revenue-neutral/net positive proposition in Denver. Recent crowds at Hamilton Gym have shown that both students and fans are willing to support the program.  The current fanbase needs to be nurtured and grown – especially regional college basketball fans due to DU’s extended holiday breaks without students on campus.

However, Denver must strike while the iron is hot and capture the moment. DU will only have one chance to make a first impression in the WCC and generate much-needed momentum. While not tearing up the WCC in the first season, Seattle U has proven to be relatively competitive. Based on that, the expectation should be that DU, with renewed effort, will do the same or better in their first season of WCC play.