The Eagles (34-5-1) are loaded with talent. Thirteen NHL draftees to be exact. They are explosive with four of the top five points-per-games scorers with freshman Will Smith (the fresh prince of Chestnut Hill) leading the nation with 71 points on 25 goals and 46 assists, good for a gaudy 1.78 points per game mark. Sophomore center Gabe Perrault is second nationally, freshman Cutter Gauthier is fourth, and Ryan Leonard is tied for fifth. The closest DU comes to the Eagle points-per-game getters is Jack Devine in eleventh with 1.30.

Despite BC’s firepower, DU holds a slight scoring edge in total goals per game 4.65 to BC’s 4.58. The Pioneers have a deep scoring committee with 10 players with at least 30 points or more (BC has six…but four with 60+). DU comes at opponents in waves with four lines capable of finding the back of the net.

The matchup of the game, though, is going to be Denver’s defense vs. BC’s powerful top scorers. Forwards Cutter Gauthier (ANA, 2023 #5 overall by PHI), Ryan Leonard (WSH, 2023 #8 overall), and Gabe Perreault (NYR, 2023 #23 overall) form a dangerous trio even when they’re not on the same line. These three lead the nation in power-play goals, too, collecting a combined 35 of BC’s 49 goals with the man advantage.

Thanks in large part to them, the Eagles have scored on 29.3% of their extra man opportunities, 2nd best in the nation behind only the team they blanked in the national semifinal, Michigan. Meanwhile, Denver is #18 in college hockey with a 22.4% scoring efficiency with the man advantage, including their 0/4 effort against Boston University last night. Denver once again must play clean hockey and keep out of the box the escape the lethal Eagle man-advantage.

When it comes to the penalty kill, the Eagles have the edge with a stingy 88.9% kill rate. You don’t even need to look it up to know that is the #1 mark in the nation. Denver’s PK, meanwhile, is #46 nationally 77.6% but again, their vastly improved defense has given up just one power play goal since the regular season ended.

You get the point, though. The Eagles are good. Really good.

The stats even up once you look at faceoffs which are virtually even (49.7% for BC vs 49.8% for DU). However, given recent results, DU may have the edge between the pipes – the most important position in one-and-done hockey.

DU’s Matt Davis may trail BC’s freshman goaltender Jacob Fowler  in terms of GAA at 2.14 to 2.42, but Davis is on a tear and has allowed more than one goal just twice in the postseason (a 5-2 win over UMD in the NCHC Quarters and a 5-4 OTW over SCSU in the NCHC semis). Brimming with confidence, Davis has shut down opponents recently, with the help of a rapidly improving defensive corps.

Denver would be wise to avoid getting into a run-and-gun affair with the Eagles and stick to the formula that has afforded them so much success over the last two weeks. Keep the game close and low-scoring while putting pressure on BC’s freshman goaltender, Fowler. Denver has shown they have the patience to play low-scoring, grind-it-out hockey, something Boston College is largely unfamiliar with this season.

Denver also has ambition and expectation on their side. Head coach David Carle said it all, “We’re staring 10 in the mirror on Saturday.” The toughest task of all is still ahead of them and knocking off BC is going to take a monumental effort. But with the motivation of finally moving ahead of Michigan, don’t expect anything other than a repeat performance of that electric game back in October. With a national title on the line, this is the rematch college hockey fans deserve.

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Top photo: Meg Kelly/USCHO